LGEM



What do these plots show?


(TOP) Normalized distributions of forecasted intensity change over the specified forecast hours (24, 48, 72). If you hover over the bins which, it will specify the sample size of the bin, the probability density function, the cumulative distribution function, the mean aboslute error when those forecasts were made, and the bias when those forecasts were made. 5 kt bins were used and the intensity changes were rounded to the nearest 5 kt such that if a forecasted intensity change of +38 kt in 48 h was made, it would be counted in the +40 kt in 48 h bin.

(BOTTOM) The spatial distribution of 48-h forecasted intensity change (shaded in kt). The circles are placed at the initial position of the storm when the forecast was made. Zoom in and hover over the points to better differentiate between forecasts.



Questions? Email Ben.Trabing@noaa.gov