Intensity Forecast Errors

Performance of Different Models Intensity Forecasts

Forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change remains a difficult forecast challenge. Forecasters use several numerical models, both statistical and dynamical, to help make intensity forecasts. It is important to understand that these models have biases and may perform better in some circumstances compared to others.

In this project I created interactive distributions of intensity change with errors and biases for when those forecasts were made. Click on the links below to view the distributions.

Note that HWRF and HMON are going to be retired soon. Once enough data is available for the HAFS models I will add them to this page.


East Pacific